The World Ahead 2022

Future-gazing analysis, predictions and speculation


Welcome to The World Ahead 2022, our guide to the coming year. Our correspondents and outside experts consider the new reality that is emerging in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, and ask what it means for politics, economics, business, science and culture. This page groups together articles by theme, or you might prefer a complete contents list. The World Ahead 2022 is the flagship publication of our future-gazing franchise, which also includes The World Ahead: What If?, our scenarios supplement, published every July. If you are not already a subscriber to The Economist you can unlock some of our content by registering.

Climate

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The fight against climate change requires action not just words

“Implementation” will be the buzzword for the new year

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Companies’ promises to hit net-zero will be put to the test

Much ado about nothing


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Brazil’s election offers hope for the rainforest

The Amazon has gone from being a carbon sink to a carbon source


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Commercial property’s biggest challenge is not the pandemic

Landlords face tightening regulation driven by climate change

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Coal is being phased out—in British homes, at least

2022 is the last year in which coal may be burned in British domestic hearths

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The world is waking up to the scourge of illegal fishing

Illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing boats are the new pirates

Middle East activists say that climate can trump politics



Democracy v autocracy

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Autocrats will continue to target dissidents abroad

They know that Western countries have done so, too

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Vladimir Putin will renew his attacks on elections and the internet

But can he tame YouTube?


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Opposition leaders will struggle to rein in Narendra Modi

Local elections will give a hint of whether a third term is likely


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Latin America is in danger of going back to the old normal

Economic stagnation, social discontent and threats to democracy loom

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Audrey Tang on how technology strengthens democracy

Taiwan’s digital minister says citizens, firms and government must co-operate

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Africa will continue to suffer coups and civil wars in 2022

Of the world’s 15 most fragile states, 11 are in sub-Saharan Africa



Covid-19

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What to expect in year three of the pandemic

New antibody and antiviral treatments, and better vaccines, are on the way

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The aftermath of the pandemic will make politics more turbulent

Political unrest tends to peak two years after an outbreak starts


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Will pre-pandemic behaviour ever return?

Our global normalcy index suggests that some changes are here to stay


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Tests and treatments for “long covid” are on the horizon

They will help sufferers of other disorders, too

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China is unlikely to re-open its borders in 2022

It is the last large country with a zero-covid policy

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New therapies for a range of conditions are coming in 2022

Haemophilia, brain disorders and malaria are being targeted



What to expect in the economy

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The number of people in extreme poverty is falling again

But some of the damage of the past two years will be impossible to undo

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Africa’s biggest economies will struggle in 2022

Smaller neighbours will race ahead


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The outlook for emerging-market debt in 2022

Emerging markets will suffer various degrees of “fiscal scarring”


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What will happen to inflation in 2022?

It’s back—but not for long. Worries about inflation will diminish

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The phenomenon of meme stocks could be here to stay

Small-scale traders’ sheer force of will can keep stock prices pumped up

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Central banks are getting closer to issuing their own digital money

They are gearing up to mint “central bank digital currencies”



The new techlash

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Li Jin on the future of the creator economy

Shared ownership and control of online platforms is the way forward

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Chinese firms are quietly pursuing a new global strategy

They are acquiring market share under the radar, through small deals


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Tareq Amin on the open future of mobile telecoms

Networks based on OpenRAN can cut costs and address security worries


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Dramatic shifts in the semiconductor industry will continue

Geopolitics and open-source designs are reshaping chipmaking

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Antitrust regulators face vibrant competition—with each other

The race to be the best tech regulator is highly competitive. How appropriate

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The digital pandemic of ransomware attacks will continue

Firms need to get the basics right in order to fight them



America’s political future

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The Biden presidency is likely to be heading towards gridlock

The president may resort to other ways to enable change

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Why Republicans are likely to win back Congress

Polls show voters are ideologically much further apart than ever


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Public-school enrolment in America is unlikely to return to normal

Learning loss will continue to be a concern, especially among the youngest


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America’s southern border will remain a political flashpoint

In 2021 the number of migrants arriving was the highest in two decades

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Francis Fukuyama on the end of American hegemony

Influence abroad depends on fixing problems at home

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The second coming of Donald Trump

Many on the right love him more than they love democracy



Tom’s top 10

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China hopes to flaunt the merits of its political system over America’s

The Communist Party congress will contrast with America’s mid-term elections

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Covid-19 is likely to fade away in 2022

But the taming of the coronavirus conceals failures in public health


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Will the world economy return to normal in 2022?

If it does not, a painful economic adjustment looms


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How to ensure that the future of work is fair for all

The hybrid workplace will be unequal, unless bosses design it not to be

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Xi Jinping’s crackdown on Chinese tech firms will continue

By rewriting the rules, the president is resetting an entire industry

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Decentralised finance is booming, but it has yet to find its purpose

DeFi is now the arena where the most exciting innovation is occurring





Editor’s introduction

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Ten trends to watch in the coming year

A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World Ahead 2022”